A recent comprehensive study of the polling data from last fall’s presidential election reaches the same conclusion as the scholars I referenced in my last blog. The results are just as definitive, and they are stated quite succinctly–Comey’s letter saying that he was reopening the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email server affected the outcome of the election.
Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium conducted this new analysis. Since results differ a little between polls, analysts get closer estimates of the actual values by averaging the results of several polls. Wang averaged the results of 32 presidential election polls conducted between August and November 7, the day before the election. Wang’s data show that opinion swung toward Trump by 4 percentage points after Comey released his letter on October 28, and about half of this was a lasting change. This change was larger than Trump’s victory margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin.
Thus, there is a strong case that Comey’s questionable actions swung the election to Donald Trump.